Look, let’s be clear off the top…NFL football is the greatest sport ever known to any man anywhere in the history of anything. To even remotely debate this should net you an open-handed slap in the mouth, or possibly a Timberland up your tush. No sport is more exciting, generates greater revenue (through TV and merchandising) or otherwise gets a young man SO hyped that his damn blood is boiling…American loves its football, and the NFL is the main reason why.So as we prepare to kick off the 2009 NFL season on Thursday, we here at TNBL present our picks and analysis while attempting to answer five of this season’s biggest questions.
1. Who is this year's "2008 Tennessee Titans"?
We’re looking for that team that'll unexpectedly win a ton of games out of nowhere, as Tennessee did when they went 13-3 in 2008. The type of team that, the year previous, was terrible , and then suddenly started looking like world-beaters LAST year, to where you were like "When did THEY get this good?" We like the Green Bay Packers in this role. Solid QB play from Aaron Rodgers, who’s working with a deep receiving corps (led by Driver and Jennings), TWO game-breaking tight ends (Lee and Finley) and a finally-healthy Ryan Grant in the backfield. Don’t be shocked if they end up being THAT team.
2. Who is this year's Detroit Lions?
Yunno, the team most likely to go 0-16 this year? We pick the Detroit Lions...again. Next question.
3. Which player will have the biggest breakout season?
This could be a rookie, but it could also be a second-year player. We like Dwayne Bowe of the Kansas City Chiefs to emerge as a premier receiver in the AFC this year. Only because new QB Matt Cassel has to throw to SOMEBODY now that TE Tony Gonzales is gone. Bowe should see PLENTY of balls thrown his way.
4. Which division will be the most dominant (have the most teams with winning records)?
In other words, “Which division is the strongest?” Well, it’s a TIE….we like both the NFC North and the AFC North. Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago are ALL Super Bowl contenders. They are all so strong, in fact, that they distract you from the disaster that is the Detroit Lions. As for the AFC North, the Steelers and the Ravens are among the class of the conference. Cincinnati is going to be better than people think, and Cleveland may not make the playoffs but they will likely give teams tougher games than expected.
5. Who will have THE MOST dominant defense?
We like the Pittsburgh Steelers to continue their dominance from last season, when they were ranked 1st or 2nd in almost every major defensive statistical category. To be sure, there are several teams (most notably, the Titans, Ravens, Cowboys and Vikings) whose defenses could be very good, but going wire to wire our money is on the defending champs.
Our division winners (listed first) and losers:
AFC EAST
• New England – still the class of the division. Brady to Moss will still kill ANY team, and Belichick is still crafty enough to pull out the close ones. Should make a deep playoff run.
• Miami - still a year away from dominance. For one, they need a REAL quarterback. Once they get that, though....look out, rest of the division.
• NY Jets - WILL be good and might make the playoffs, but not good enough to beat the Patriots twice this year. Sanchez is likely the Rookie Of The Year, especially if he can get any semblance of a running game going behind him.
• Buffalo - Terrell Owens will have destroyed the team by the end of October.
AFC WEST
• San Diego - when healthy, head and shoulder above the rest of the division. LT is due to return to form any day now, and Rivers to Gates is still a top tandem in the league.
• Denver – this team lost already simply for believing in Kyle Orton. If they also give up their best (and most troubled) receiver, then they're basement status. As it is, though, they're good enough to be second in THIS division, but not many others.
• Kansas City - ABSOLUTELY no offensive line and have lost their anchor in the offense with the departure of Tony Gonzales. Larry WHO? Exactly, that dude is so inconsistent and undependable that you can't even count on him to contribute this year.
• Oakland - will never win as long as Al Davis continues to runs the franchise into the dirt.
AFC NORTH
• Pittsburgh – have the swagger, the experience, the running game, and that defense. The ONLY thing that can derail them from yet another postseason appearance is injuries.
• Baltimore - will be VERY tough, and will likely play Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. Baltimore is one of the only teams I can see going into Foxboro and winning with no problem. They will be very, very good, especially if Flacco continues to look like a veteran.
• Cincinnati - will be MUCH better than we think anybody realizes, especially on defense. We predict them to make the playoffs this year.
• Cleveland – will struggle to go 7-9, but will play most games very tough.
AFC SOUTH
• Tennessee – their defense and running game will be great, again. No matter who the QB is, those two things might be enough to get them through the division. Jeff Fisher knows how to control his gameplan to be effective, that's why the Titans always get those "sneaky" wins to where you look up and they've won 12-10.
• Indianapolis –they’re a darkhorse...they COULD be good, but there are questions about the new defensive coordinator. I understand they've tinkered a bit with their standard Cover 2 4-3 alignment and will now blitz more heavily with their safeties and LBs to improve their pass rush and be better in 3rd and long situations.
• Jacksonville - will struggle and be supplanted by a team like Cincy. I have ALWAYS questioned David Garrard's leadership (even though he's a really nice, good guy) and I think the health bug will catch up with their running game this year. And their receivers are mad suspect.
• Houston - have to show me they have a CONSISTENT running game first this season before I consider them another team who could "supplant" a previously-considered annual contender (e.g., Jacksonville, Denver). I'll know first-hand, too, because I have Slaton on my fantasy team....
NFC EAST
[Note: author is biased against the NFC East, and as such will not pick an individual team]
The NFC East is pretty much up for grabs. It all depends on which team emerges from underneath all their question marks:
• NY Giants – they COULD be world-beaters if they can move the ball down the field vertically. We know they can run but they have NO go-to receivers anymore. Their defense will be great, but not great enough to be on the field MORE than the offense.
• Philadelphia - could play in the Super Bowl this year….IF they can CONVERT IN THE %#@*&# RED ZONE (ahem…s’cuse me) and improve their defensive intensity. Omar Gaither was named starting MLB to replace Stewart Bradley. The Macho Harris Era begins with the offseason departure of Brian Dawkins. Write it down: Macho Harris will be a premier safety in the NFL within the next 2-3 years. Remember that you heard it from TNBL first.
• Dallas –yunno, they really ARE a good team, or at least, they SHOULD be better now that That Other idiot is gone. However, until they actually WIN in the playoffs we can’t give them the type of props to put them above the Eagles or the Giants. At least those two teams have BEEN there already, while Dallas hasn’t won a playoff game since the days of yesteryear…they’re like the Notre Dame of the NFL….
• Washington - will do what they always do…start strong, with Portis playing like an All Pro and Jason Campbell being accurate and effective. THEN, Portis will get injured, their defense (who to that point will have been playing great) will start giving up 30 and 40 points per contest, and by the end of the season they’ll be outta the playoff picture. Serves you right when you think you can simply throw money at a situation in order to win a title. Dan Snyder is such a loooo-HOOO-serrr-HERRRRR….
NFC WEST
• Arizona - they win by default because the rest of the division is so craptacular. We WILL say this, though: there is NO WAY Kurt Warner stays healthy for the WHOLE year again.
• Seattle – is the only team who could actually SURPRISE people if they can put it all together. Arizona’s only competition in the division.
• St. Louis - has no defense whatsoever. Will score points themselves, but so what?
• San Francisco is not disciplined enough, especially on defense, and they STILL don’t have a QB. Also, Crabtree is only making it worse on himself by not being there.
NFC NORTH
• Minnesota - Don’t get us wrong…Green Bay OR Chicago can both win this division, as well. But a REAL QB is all Minnesota needed to not only win this division, but possibly win the entire NFC. Adrian Peterson wasn’t as INJURED last year as some had expected (he was hurt, but he bounced back quickly each time) and Minny might have the best offensive line AND defensive line in the league. All they needed was the THREAT of a passing game. And say what you want about Diva Brett, he KNOWS how to deliver in that regard, and he KNOWS how to win. It’s all they needed. We think they win 11 or 12 games this year.
• Green Bay – will be very good, may even be among the best. However, the bottom line is that we don’t think they’re going to beat Minnesota TWICE this season because Favre has been just ITCHING for almost three years to play the Packers, and we think he’s going to go absolutely berserk when he does face them. In fact, we think he’ll have his best games against them this year.
• Chicago - listen….when their defense is healthy, you HAVE to consider them serious contenders. That will be the case this year. Plus, with the emergence of Matt Forte and now the addition of Jay Cutler (and we’re sorry, but Cutler is FAR, FAR better than ANYBODY they’ve had in there in the last half a decade), they can control the clock AND score points with the deep ball.
…oh, you thought we forgot Detroit?…well, they are pretty forgettable. But we all know they ain’t gon’ do nothin’, so why kick ‘em while they’re down? Oh wait, we just did, didn’t we?
D’AH well….
NFC SOUTH
• Atlanta – we pick them over Carolina only because we have ZERO confidence in Jake Delhomme. Turner is a stud and Gonzales will have a Pro Bowl year. Matt Ryan is said to look “better than he did last season.”
• Carolina - probably stronger defensively than Atlanta, and have ample weapons, but again, Delhomme is far too up and down in our opinions in order for them to win this division. He COULD surprise, but we’re not betting on him this time.
• New Orleans - will likely be rather one-dimensional, even though Drew Brees is far too underrated as one of the best QBs in the entire league. Also, one Brees injury and they’re straight toilet bowl status.
• Tampa Bay - has far too many QB issues for our tastes. Defense will be good but running game and receiving corps are question marks, as well.
We like the Pittsburgh Steelers to continue their dominance from last season, when they were ranked 1st or 2nd in almost every major defensive statistical category. To be sure, there are several teams (most notably, the Titans, Ravens, Cowboys and Vikings) whose defenses could be very good, but going wire to wire our money is on the defending champs.
Our division winners (listed first) and losers:
AFC EAST
• New England – still the class of the division. Brady to Moss will still kill ANY team, and Belichick is still crafty enough to pull out the close ones. Should make a deep playoff run.
• Miami - still a year away from dominance. For one, they need a REAL quarterback. Once they get that, though....look out, rest of the division.
• NY Jets - WILL be good and might make the playoffs, but not good enough to beat the Patriots twice this year. Sanchez is likely the Rookie Of The Year, especially if he can get any semblance of a running game going behind him.
• Buffalo - Terrell Owens will have destroyed the team by the end of October.
AFC WEST
• San Diego - when healthy, head and shoulder above the rest of the division. LT is due to return to form any day now, and Rivers to Gates is still a top tandem in the league.
• Denver – this team lost already simply for believing in Kyle Orton. If they also give up their best (and most troubled) receiver, then they're basement status. As it is, though, they're good enough to be second in THIS division, but not many others.
• Kansas City - ABSOLUTELY no offensive line and have lost their anchor in the offense with the departure of Tony Gonzales. Larry WHO? Exactly, that dude is so inconsistent and undependable that you can't even count on him to contribute this year.
• Oakland - will never win as long as Al Davis continues to runs the franchise into the dirt.
AFC NORTH
• Pittsburgh – have the swagger, the experience, the running game, and that defense. The ONLY thing that can derail them from yet another postseason appearance is injuries.
• Baltimore - will be VERY tough, and will likely play Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. Baltimore is one of the only teams I can see going into Foxboro and winning with no problem. They will be very, very good, especially if Flacco continues to look like a veteran.
• Cincinnati - will be MUCH better than we think anybody realizes, especially on defense. We predict them to make the playoffs this year.
• Cleveland – will struggle to go 7-9, but will play most games very tough.
AFC SOUTH
• Tennessee – their defense and running game will be great, again. No matter who the QB is, those two things might be enough to get them through the division. Jeff Fisher knows how to control his gameplan to be effective, that's why the Titans always get those "sneaky" wins to where you look up and they've won 12-10.
• Indianapolis –they’re a darkhorse...they COULD be good, but there are questions about the new defensive coordinator. I understand they've tinkered a bit with their standard Cover 2 4-3 alignment and will now blitz more heavily with their safeties and LBs to improve their pass rush and be better in 3rd and long situations.
• Jacksonville - will struggle and be supplanted by a team like Cincy. I have ALWAYS questioned David Garrard's leadership (even though he's a really nice, good guy) and I think the health bug will catch up with their running game this year. And their receivers are mad suspect.
• Houston - have to show me they have a CONSISTENT running game first this season before I consider them another team who could "supplant" a previously-considered annual contender (e.g., Jacksonville, Denver). I'll know first-hand, too, because I have Slaton on my fantasy team....
NFC EAST
[Note: author is biased against the NFC East, and as such will not pick an individual team]
The NFC East is pretty much up for grabs. It all depends on which team emerges from underneath all their question marks:
• NY Giants – they COULD be world-beaters if they can move the ball down the field vertically. We know they can run but they have NO go-to receivers anymore. Their defense will be great, but not great enough to be on the field MORE than the offense.
• Philadelphia - could play in the Super Bowl this year….IF they can CONVERT IN THE %#@*&# RED ZONE (ahem…s’cuse me) and improve their defensive intensity. Omar Gaither was named starting MLB to replace Stewart Bradley. The Macho Harris Era begins with the offseason departure of Brian Dawkins. Write it down: Macho Harris will be a premier safety in the NFL within the next 2-3 years. Remember that you heard it from TNBL first.
• Dallas –yunno, they really ARE a good team, or at least, they SHOULD be better now that That Other idiot is gone. However, until they actually WIN in the playoffs we can’t give them the type of props to put them above the Eagles or the Giants. At least those two teams have BEEN there already, while Dallas hasn’t won a playoff game since the days of yesteryear…they’re like the Notre Dame of the NFL….
• Washington - will do what they always do…start strong, with Portis playing like an All Pro and Jason Campbell being accurate and effective. THEN, Portis will get injured, their defense (who to that point will have been playing great) will start giving up 30 and 40 points per contest, and by the end of the season they’ll be outta the playoff picture. Serves you right when you think you can simply throw money at a situation in order to win a title. Dan Snyder is such a loooo-HOOO-serrr-HERRRRR….
NFC WEST
• Arizona - they win by default because the rest of the division is so craptacular. We WILL say this, though: there is NO WAY Kurt Warner stays healthy for the WHOLE year again.
• Seattle – is the only team who could actually SURPRISE people if they can put it all together. Arizona’s only competition in the division.
• St. Louis - has no defense whatsoever. Will score points themselves, but so what?
• San Francisco is not disciplined enough, especially on defense, and they STILL don’t have a QB. Also, Crabtree is only making it worse on himself by not being there.
NFC NORTH
• Minnesota - Don’t get us wrong…Green Bay OR Chicago can both win this division, as well. But a REAL QB is all Minnesota needed to not only win this division, but possibly win the entire NFC. Adrian Peterson wasn’t as INJURED last year as some had expected (he was hurt, but he bounced back quickly each time) and Minny might have the best offensive line AND defensive line in the league. All they needed was the THREAT of a passing game. And say what you want about Diva Brett, he KNOWS how to deliver in that regard, and he KNOWS how to win. It’s all they needed. We think they win 11 or 12 games this year.
• Green Bay – will be very good, may even be among the best. However, the bottom line is that we don’t think they’re going to beat Minnesota TWICE this season because Favre has been just ITCHING for almost three years to play the Packers, and we think he’s going to go absolutely berserk when he does face them. In fact, we think he’ll have his best games against them this year.
• Chicago - listen….when their defense is healthy, you HAVE to consider them serious contenders. That will be the case this year. Plus, with the emergence of Matt Forte and now the addition of Jay Cutler (and we’re sorry, but Cutler is FAR, FAR better than ANYBODY they’ve had in there in the last half a decade), they can control the clock AND score points with the deep ball.
…oh, you thought we forgot Detroit?…well, they are pretty forgettable. But we all know they ain’t gon’ do nothin’, so why kick ‘em while they’re down? Oh wait, we just did, didn’t we?
D’AH well….
NFC SOUTH
• Atlanta – we pick them over Carolina only because we have ZERO confidence in Jake Delhomme. Turner is a stud and Gonzales will have a Pro Bowl year. Matt Ryan is said to look “better than he did last season.”
• Carolina - probably stronger defensively than Atlanta, and have ample weapons, but again, Delhomme is far too up and down in our opinions in order for them to win this division. He COULD surprise, but we’re not betting on him this time.
• New Orleans - will likely be rather one-dimensional, even though Drew Brees is far too underrated as one of the best QBs in the entire league. Also, one Brees injury and they’re straight toilet bowl status.
• Tampa Bay - has far too many QB issues for our tastes. Defense will be good but running game and receiving corps are question marks, as well.
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